Random Thoughts of the Day
+ Nothing feels worse than that moment during an argument when you realize you’re wrong.
+ There is a great need for sarcasm font.
+ Bad decisions make good stories.
+ Sometimes I’ll look down at my watch 3 consecutive times and still not know what time it is.
+ Whenever someone says “I’m not book smart, but I’m street smart”, all I hear is “I’m not real smart, but I’m imaginary smart”.
+ More often than not, when someone is telling me a story all I can think about is that I can’t wait for them to finish so that I can tell my own story that’s not only better, but also more directly involves me.
+ I totally take back all those times I didn’t want to nap when I was younger.
+ How are you supposed to fold a fitted sheet?
+ I would rather try to carry 10 plastic grocery bags in each hand than take 2 trips to bring my groceries in.
+ I think part of a best friend’s job should be to immediately clear your computer history if you die.
+ The only time I look forward to a red light is when I’m trying to finish a text.
+ Have you ever been walking down the street and realized that you’re going in the complete opposite direction of where you are supposed to be going? But instead of just turning a 180 and walking back in the direction from which you came, you have to first do something like check your watch or phone or make a grand arm gesture and mutter to yourself to ensure that no one in the surrounding area thinks you’re crazy by randomly switching directions on the sidewalk.
+ What would happen if I hired two private investigators to follow each other?
+ While driving yesterday I saw a banana peel in the road and instinctively swerved to avoid it…thanks Mario Kart.
+ MapQuest really needs to start their directions on #5. Pretty sure I know how to get out of my neighborhood.
+ Obituaries would be a lot more interesting if they told you how the person died.
+ I find it hard to believe there are actually people who get in the shower first and THEN turn on the water.
+ Shirts get dirty. Underwear gets dirty. Pants? Pants never get dirty, and you can wear them forever.
+ Why is it that during an ice-breaker, when the whole room has to go around and say their name and where they are from, I get so incredibly nervous? Like I know my name, I know where I’m from, this shouldn’t be a problem….
+ There’s no worse feeling than that millisecond you’re sure you are going to die after leaning your chair back a little too far.
+ I hate when I just miss a call by the last ring (Hello? Hello? Damnit!), but when I immediately call back, it rings nine times and goes to voicemail. What’d you do after I didn’t answer? Drop the phone and run away?
+ I keep some people’s phone numbers in my phone just so I know not to answer when they call.
+ I wonder if cops ever get irritated at the fact that everyone they drive behind obeys the speed limit.
+ I think the freezer deserves a light as well.
Thanks goes to my longtime friend Joe C for sharing these thoughts with me.
Did Newt Neuter Himself?
Newt Gingrich is held in less esteem than Sarah Palin. Among voters in general, and among Republicans.
His involvement in NY-23 was principled — he supported the primacy of the New York Republican party to pick its own candidates — but … Sarah Palin is now held in higher regard.
Per the most recent Gallup Poll, 33% of Americans would “seriously consider supporting” Sarah Palin for president. Only 29% would support Newt.
Within Republicana, Palin again beats Newt 65% to 60%.
Gallup found that Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney hold the edge, although their lead is so small as to be inconsequential.
Source: http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2009-11-05-gop-poll_N.htm#table
This blog by Bill Golden, Bill4DogCatcher.com, an independent fed up with party politics but friendly to the concept of smaller government, maximum personal freedoms, Main Street over Wall Street, fiscal responsibility and community first.
Independents Picked Winners in November 2009 Election
November 3, 2009 was a good day for the GOP. Several strong wins for key governorships, a clean sweep of state officers in Virginia, and yet a historical loss in NY-23 which has been Republican since 1867.
So where is America going?
– Women voted Democratic in both the New Jersey and Virginia governor races. Men voted Republican. Both sexes favored their candidates by the simplest of majorities: 51-52%.
– Young voters did not turn out in huge numbers, but voters under the age of 30 voted Democratic in both New Jersey and Virginia by a simple majority.
– The majority of voters were between the age of 45-60, an age group which favors Republicans.
– Black Americans stayed home in Virginia. Only 15% went to the polls. Democrats worked hard to mobilize minority voters and women to oppose a demonized Republican candidate. Women did vote Democratic but the question is whether the Democrats should have focused on issues rather than ‘we know we got your vote if we could just get you to the polls’ — obviously, a failed strategy.
– Atlanta has a white population of 38% yet has given the edge to its first white mayoral candidate since 1973. A runoff is required so stay tuned for the final outcome.
– Coloradans rejected the power of government to seize people’s cars just because they drive without a license.
– Maine referendum repeals last year’s law legalizing gay marriage: 53% to 47%.
– An openly gay mayoral candidate in Houston, Texas finishes in the lead but must still compete in a runoff.
– Not only conservatives but very liberal organizations turned on Dede Scozzafava in NY-23. Dede was given an award by ‘The Susan B. Anthony List’ for support of abortion rights, but the organization spent $142,000 in advertising attacking her in her bid for NY-23.
– Power of newspapers – does it matter any longer? The Washington Post strongly endorsed a number of candidates in Virginia’s election. Some would say the Post went out of its way to target those that it didn’t endorse. Candidates getting the Post’s endorsement lost.
– Were the Virginia and New Jersey governorship races a decision on President Obama’s performance? Obama remains popular in both states well above the 50% mark. Voters in both states said their #1 concern was the economy: New Jersey 90% said economy, and 85% in Virginia.
Independents Picked The Winners
The biggest story really is that it was independent voters that decided 2009’s winners and losers. Not only were there a number of strong independent campaigns, but independents picked the winners while party partisans overwhelming voted for their own.
Exit polls in Virginia showed that 94% of Republicans voted Republican and 95% of Democrats voted Democratic. With an edge in registered voters then you would think that the Democrats would have won.
New Jersey and Virginia exit polls show that independents overwhelmingly voted Republican. Virginia’s McDonnell got 62% of independent votes, and Chris Christie got 58% in New Jersey.
If 2009’s election was an indication of things to come in 2010 then the message was clear: reach out to your base, but if you don’t win the independent vote then you WILL NOT WIN.
Independents vote issues. If you want their vote then you, we, someone needs to answer these questions: How is this good for America? How is this good for me?
This blog by Bill Golden, Bill4DogCatcher.com, an independent fed up with party politics but friendly to the concept of smaller government, maximum personal freedoms, Main Street over Wall Street, fiscal responsibility and community first.
New Website Tracks Funding of Conservative Money Sources
A liberal advocacy group launched a website, The Conservative Transparency Web (http://www.conservativetransparency.org), to document financial and political ties of conservative groups, many of which emerged throughout 2009 as major political forces opposition to President Obama’s policies. The website is run by the Media Matters Action Network and uses Internal Revenue Service filings to track the major financial backers and beneficiaries of conservative activist groups.
Anyone know of a similar website tracking liberal groups?
Source: Dan Eggen, Washington Post, Liberal group eyes conservatives’ connections, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/03/AR2009110300372.html
Want a third political party? 46% of Americans say they do.
Want a third party? Lots of talk making the rounds about forming a third party.
You may even see some news stories saying half of all Americans want a 3rd political party. See page 13 of a recent NBC/WSJ poll that says 46% want a 3rd party (1).
Wanting is different than WANTING. It is no small task to start a third political party. The odds are also stacked against you being successful because you actually have to win elections or receive a huge number of votes before you become a full participant in the political process. Example: Ross Perot was able to participate in the 1992 presidential debates but was disqualified in 1996’s debates due to many factors that place special challenges in the path of third party success (2).
This question about wanting a third party has historically gotten a 45-51% support response. And “strongly” wants has always averaged 30%.
My Prediction
Republicans will run alternative candidates on as many “existing” third party tickets as possible in 2010, mostly against moderate Republicans. End result: Either a split vote leaving moderate Republicans losers or just the threat of a third party run scares off moderate Republicans that don’t have a firm storyline about what they believe and a strong relationship with their constituents. Third party end runs will only work in the South and the eastern seaboard.
Sources:
1 - http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/091027_NBCPoll.pdf
2 – In Ross Perot’s case, despite having got 18% of the presidential election vote in 1992, America’s Commission on Presidential Debates placed many hurdles in his path in 1996: he needed ballot status in all 50 states, his standing in the polls needed to reach a certain percentage, attendance levels at his rallies indicating he was a viable candidate with real supporters, a consideration of the likelihood that he will ever be president, and the opinions of a host of pundits on the value of his presence on the political scene (if he is just a spoiler then inclusion would be free publicity for a non-serious candidate).
Send in the clones. Why Ron Paul & clones are the last great hope for the Republican Party.
If the Republican Party had just 25 more Ron Pauls we would be a saner, better party … it would actually be a political party of ideas and debate.
Back during ther summer, there was talk of “civil war” within the party. That was especially a favorite term of some ultra-conservatives like Governor Rick Perry in Texas.
Then these “civil war” Republicans got invited to TEA parties and all sorts of things so that they could strut their revolutionary stuff. Most of them ran for the hills. They didn’t really want a civil war. They just wanted the other parts of the party to sit down and to shut up — or better yet, to just leave.
However, Republicans have morphed a lot from the summer of 2009 and their reactionarism (June/July) to then being revolutionary (August/September) and are now balkanized (Oct).
Problem #1: National Republican leadership is almost non-existent. We have the equivalent of the Siegfried Line as national party strategy in which we are incapable of effective counterattack. We are locked behind our own lines. Our defense IS our attack as we have fortified our battlelines behind a nearly monolithic party line vote in Congress.
Problem #2: The Democrats don’t care about our strategy. They do not need to breech our lines to win the war. As for probing for weaknesses in the line we are doing that already for the Democrats.
Almost weekly 2 or 3 Republicans are pilloried as RINOs — and to what end? It weakens the wall further as the opponent on the other side is much less dreaded than the self-appointed commissars of political purity that are running amuck in their effort to cleanse the party and to prepare for the Gottdammerung battles of 2010 and 2012.
Problem #3: There are those within our ranks that are preparing for their own defection. They are setting up the scenarios that will let them slide out through the flanks and justify their own survival by reinventing themselves. Internal balkanization will surely follow the cliques that have formed.
Problem #4: Denial remains rampant as to how the Republican Party got to where it is today. This is where Ron Paul comes into the picture.
While I do not agree with everything proposed by Ron Paul, he is undoubtedly one of the very few truthsayers in the Republican Party today. I trust Ron Paul a lot more than I do the national Republican leadership.
Ron Paul has never been a go-along, get-along Republican. More important is that Ron Paul has principles. (They all say they do — but constant voting along party lines negates the existence of having principles).
Unlike some of our party leadership that will defend their principles when forced to, or when it seems politically a way to reinforce the ol’Siegfried, Ron Paul has taken very strong and specific stands on issues of national importance. He has largely lived his principles … and not just when it is politicaly convenient to do so.
The Future & Two Predictions
Republicans are hoping to hold their Siegfried Line until 2010 when they expect (are praying for) a huge groundswell of disappointment with the Obama Administration that will cause them to make gains in Congress. History says that this is possible. However, some data that I am looking at says that the trends of history may fail us this time around, because we have not learned the lessons of history: if you repeatedly get run over then maybe YOU have a problem. Stop blaming the other guy.
In preparation for 2010 some ultra-conservative Republicans are toying with the idea of a third party.
This third party idea is playing out right now in the battle for New York’s 23rd Congressional District. The local Republican Party picked a candidate that they thought would do well in battle against whomever the Democrats put up. The 23rd has traditionally voted Republican, and is now only one of three congressional districts in New York with a Republican representative. In the last election the district went madly Democratic. Reality on the ground is that the New York Republican leadership looked for someone that appealed to New Yorkers, someone along the lines of Dede Scozzafava, a fiscally responsibile yet social liberal Republican … and that’s when the fight started.
Doug Hoffman, who remains a registered Republican and is not even a resident of District 23 (he lives in the 20th District, but this doesn’t matter in New York) chose to run under the flag of the New York Conservative Party. The battle has been ferocious.
New York Republicans are generally lining up behind Scozzafava. Even Newt Gingrich has endorsed and campaigned for Scozzafava.
Yet, the battle of the 23rd District was joined on October 22nd by Sarah Palin reinforcing the candidacy of Doug Hoffman. So now we have a state-level party that is on its last legs in an attempt to remain players by electing Republicans and then a balkanized civil war breaks out.
This is all good stuff for the Democrats who may well now claim the 23rd District for the first time since 1993.
Sarah Palin said back in July 2009 that she planned to support candidates in elections based upon their beliefs and not on their party label. Kudos to Palin for having said and then doing what she said. The question really is whether this balkanization strategy is really just a prelude to her setting the stage for a 2012 independent run. (I can see Sarah Palin also as the Republican nominee, but only if about half the Republican Party becomes Democrats, and independent voters aren’t needed to win).
PREDICTION #1:
The economy will stablize during 2010, the Obama Administration will finally seem to get its act together and the Democrats will do well enough in the 2010 elections that they maintain or even gain slightly in Congress. 2010 will finish with the Democrats maintaining the ability to push through whatever bills they wish. (Lucky for us foodfights are common among Democrats so only half of what they would like to do has a chance.)
We Republicans will remain somewhat grumpily but comfortably behind the supposed safety of our Siegfried Line stewing in our own sauerkraut as we try to figure out what to do next for 2012.
PREDICTION #2:
2011 will be a very hurtful year for the American economy. We have staggering amounts of foreign debt that will be due. Tax receipts will have fallen and government services will be on the chopping block, unless we raise the national debt limit (No. No. No. Please, no!). 2010 will have proven to be a jobless recovery although we will have adjusted enough in our spending habits and lifestyle to make do. The U.S. dollar will finally fall from grace as the international reserve currency and that will unleash hell upon us.
So what about Ron Paul?
With exception of the few remaining New England Republicans, the thoughtful attempts by Lindsey Graham and John McCain to find some middle path and to create a national conversation, there is largely only Ron Paul actually talking about issues without following the lowest denominator approach of say nothing, take no risks that is the Boehner-McConnell party line.
Ron Paul is important because his libertarian approach provides principles upon which many in the party should look to if we are to be a real party. We must challenge our leadership. We must refuse the vote the party line just because it is a thorn in the Democrats side as we are trying to buy time.
The forces of Gottdammerung approach and we will only be a successful party once we can openly discuss and openly disagree and openly challenge the orthodoxy of whatever we were/mostly still are.
Some conversaton is happening but only as the forces of balkanization now attempt to write George Bush off as a “Deformed Conservative”. Those who enabled him are also “deformed conservatives” per a recent American Conservative magazine article.
Umm, has anyone noticed that all of those “deformed conservatives” are largely still in power, except for Bush and Cheney? It would be nice to expand the conversation a bit beyond just whom we wish to blame our defeats upon. A constant state of denial should not be a worthy political principle to aspire to.
We need more Ron Pauls because his embrace of libertarian principles makes it possible for the Republican Party to once again become a party of debate and ideas. Ron Paul has repeatedly spoken loudly if only through the votes that he has cast while in Congress.
Ron Paul and similar minds are the last great hope for the Republican Party because we desperately need an ethos of open minds, forceful disagreement, and principled discussions. Just 25 such Republicans would make all the difference between now and the great fracturing of a balkanized Republican Party in the 2010 and 2012 elections.
And to my “moderate” friends
And for moderates — you need to find some principles quick. Being “moderate” or “centrist” is a mode. If you keep standing in the middle of the road whining that no one is stopping to give you a kiss … then you are just going to get your arse run over. Become a liberal, libertarian or conservative or whatever, but get some principles and go with it. Defend them. Live them. Be “moderate” when it comes to time to work out agreement but please stop standing in the middle of the road.
Best regards,
Bill4DogCatcher.com
Does your elected representative listen to you or do they just vote the party line? How Republicans voted.
If your Congressman or Senator tells you that they plan to look at all the facts before voting then … it could happen. Maybe.
If they tell you that they are an independent thinker and that they will make up their own mind — well, again, it could happen although not likely.
There is a huge, overwhelming probability that they will vote the party line.
How often do legislators vote the party line? For both parties:
House: average for all members: 90.4%
Senate: average for all members: 86.7%
!! Least likely to vote the party line:
House: Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX)
* Representing: Texas, District 14
* Voted with Republican Party: 77.9 percent of 715 votes.Senate: Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME)
* Representing: Maine
* Voted with Republican Party: 58.0 percent of 319 votes.Both Paul and Snowe have among the abolute highest approval ratings from citizens in their home districts or states:
– Ron Paul won his last election (2008) with 40% more votes than his opponent. That is not a landslide but a tsunami.
– Olympia Snowe: has never dropped below 70% and usually hovers at 80% popularity in her home state of Maine (currently, even after being the lone Republican to move Obamacare to a floor debate and vote).
Below are the Top 10 Republican House members and Senators and how often they vote the party line.
====================
House of Representatives
====================
97.3% Rep. Sam Graves (R-MO)
* Representing: Missouri, District 6
* Voted with Republican Party: 97.3% of 733 votes.
96.5% Rep. Mary Fallin (R-OK)
* Representing: Oklahoma, District 5
* Voted with Republican Party: 96.5% of 780 votes.
96.1% Rep. John Boozman (R-AR)
* Representing: Arkansas, District 3
* Voted with Republican Party: 96.1% of 786 votes.
96.1% Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-MO)
* Representing: Missouri, District 9
* Voted with Republican Party: 96.1% of 778 votes.
95.8% Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA)
* Representing: California, District 22
* Voted with Republican Party: 95.8% of 777 votes.
95.7% Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA)
* Representing: California, District 52
* Voted with Republican Party: 95.7% of 787 votes.
95.7% Rep. Robert Latta (R-OH)
* Representing: Ohio, District 5
* Voted with Republican Party: 95.7% of 788 votes.
95.6% Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA)
* Representing: Washington, District 5
* Voted with Republican Party: 95.6% of 772 votes.
95.5% Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC)
* Representing: South Carolina, District 2
* Voted with Republican Party: 95.5% of 782 votes.
95.4% Rep. Adrian Smith (R-NE)
* Representing: Nebraska, District 3
* Voted with Republican Party: 95.4% of 785 votes.
====================
Senate
====================
94.2% Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA)
* Representing: Georgia
* Voted with Republican Party: 94.2% of 311 votes.
93.9% Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-GA)
* Representing: Georgia
* Voted with Republican Party: 93.9% of 314 votes.
93.4% Sen. John Thune (R-SD)
* Representing: South Dakota
* Voted with Republican Party: 93.4% of 319 votes.
92.4% Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC)
* Representing: North Carolina
* Voted with Republican Party: 92.4% of 314 votes.
92.3% Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX)
* Representing: Texas
* Voted with Republican Party: 92.3% of 313 votes.
92.2% Sen. James Risch (R-ID)
* Representing: Idaho
* Voted with Republican Party: 92.2% of 319 votes.
91.9% Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY)
* Representing: Wyoming
* Voted with Republican Party: 91.9% of 320 votes.
91.7% Sen. Mike Enzi (R-WY)
* Representing: Wyoming
* Voted with Republican Party: 91.7% of 313 votes.
91.7% Sen. David Vitter (R-LA)
* Representing: Louisiana
* Voted with Republican Party: 91.7% of 312 votes.
91.3% Sen. James Inhofe (R-OK)
* Representing: Oklahoma
* Voted with Republican Party: 91.3% of 312 votes.
Your Assistance and Thoughts, Please – Am Researching Conservative Third Party Probability in 2012
I am researching the probability that American conservatives will abandon the Republican Party and form a third party to run in 2012.
Also interested in whether Democratic Blue Dogs and other currently existing third parties, such as the Constitution Party, will join or collaborate with a new party comprised primarily of an exodus from the Republican Party.
Will publish a series of essays to appear on a variety of political websites beginning November 2nd, 2009.
Below are the progression of my survey topics:
- Conservative Future 1/5 – Political Divorce and Third Party in 2012?
- Conservative Future 2/5 – Conservative Third Parties in USA
- Conservative Future 3/5 – Giants and Personalities Capable of Uniting Conservatopia
- Conservative Future 4/5 – Can Conservatives and the Right Wing Play Nice Together?
- Conservative Future 5/5 – Conservatives and the GOP – Divorce or Collaboration: 2012?
Am seeking various sources of information with hard information on personalities, issues, point/counterpoint, prior research, polls, conspiracy theories and rumor plus your opinion.
You are welcome to send me your thoughts — and sources — via Facebook or via email: WGolden@IntelligenceCareers.com
Are Republicans Ready To Lead America Again? Armstrong Williams has some questions.
Constructive thought from Armstrong Williams, a sane voice for conservative values.
The GOP vs. Labor Law — Tough Words From The Wall Street Journal
From the Wall Street Journal, October 15, 2009:
“The signature achievement of the late Republican ascendancy was government failure. Regulators scaled back enforcement. Agencies were filled with former lobbyists.”
“It worked superbly for the party’s supporters, but not so well for the rest of us. And today, though the GOP has paid for its sins at the polls, it is still playing the same game.”
=== Bill4DogCatcher sez ===
When the Wall Street Journal takes you to task for something like this then you know that you have crossed the line.
On its face this seems to be another case of conservative Republicans taking the side of business against the average worker.
The real question is whether the Republican(s) behind this really cares more about business profits or workers’ ability to make a decent wage.
The problem seems to be something called “Wage Watch”, which encourages employees to report labor law violations and provides a means to effectively do just that.
Sen. Mike Enzi, Republican of Wyoming, is so upset that he placed a “hold” on the nomination of M. Patricia Smith as solicitor of the U.S. Department of Labor. The practical effect of this maneuver is that it will require 60 votes in the Senate to win confirmation.
More information on this issue:
– Obama Choice for Labor Post Advances but Then Meets a G.O.P. Roadblock: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/08/us/politics/08labor.html
– February 9, 2009 Letter by various businesses Re New York Wage Watch: http://www.nyacs.org/documents/09wagewatch.pdf
– NY Labor Department to Partner with Community Groups to Fight Wage Violations: http://dell.hrtools.com/news/alerts/ny_labor_department_to_partner_with_community_groups_to_fight_wage_violations.aspx
– Wage initiative stymies labor nominee: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/aug/28/wage-initiative-stymies-labor-nominee//print/
– Wage Watch, NY Dept. of Labor reaches out to grass-roots campaign to fight wage violations: http://unionreview.com/wage-watch,-ny-dept.-labor-reaches-out-grass-roots-campaign-fight-wage-violations
– Find more info by using this Google search.
