The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) came out with a massive tome (179 pages) on the state of the American economy and jobs earlier today.
Three key predictions on employment:
— 2010 unemployment will remain at 10.x% through 2010 and move downward to 10% during 4Q/2010.
— 2011 unemployment will remain at 10.x% with a very gradual decline in unemployment to 9.1% in 4Q/2011.
— CBO doesn’t expect the jobless rate to reach 5% until 2016. (Bill Golden note: an earlier BLS estimate was that it would not drop below 8% until late 2013, so these two agencies seem to be in general agreement on what the ‘recovery slope’ looks like).
You can get your very own PDF copy of this document at: http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/108xx/doc10871/01-26-Outlook.pdf