Obama & Democratic Support Projected to Drop Significantly Without Major Immigration Reform Bill Passage

From “Obama, Immigration and The Latino Vote” by Tom Schaller at FiveThirtyEight.com, Latino support for the Democratic Party is projected to drop significantly if there is not an immigration bill passed.

President Obama had an 81% approval rating by Latinos just four months after he took office in 2009, dipping to 74% by late 2009 — good, just not as good.

There is however a downward trend by Latinos in their support for the Democratic Party. Sixtyfive (65) percent plan to vote Democratic in November 2010, dropping to just 55% support for voting Democratic in 2012.

Estimated drop in Latino Participation in 2010 and 2012 elections

According to Stanford University political scientist Gary Segura of Latino Decisions, enthusiasm to vote this fall among Latinos is dropping and, he projects, will drop further if there is no comprehensive immigration bill. The chart above is from the Latino Decisions website. Segura writes:

New polling data from Latino Decisions is our attempt to estimate this effect among Latinos. We find Latino enthusiasm for voting in the November 2010 [election] is at an all time low. In 2006 when Republicans held the White House, the Senate, and the House, and immigration marches mobilized millions of Latinos around the country interest in the midterm was at record levels. Now, four years later, many Latino voters do not see an urgency in turning out. In April 2006, a Latino Policy Coalition survey (which LD principals helped write) found that 77% of Latino registered voters stated they were certain to vote, a measure of enthusiasm that grew to 89% determined to vote by September 2006. By that November, about 60% actually voted.

Compare those numbers to our recent data. As of March 2010, Latino Decisions survey data finds that just 49% of Latino registered voters say they are very enthusiastic about voting. Since 60% of Latinos turned out in 2006 when their self-reported enthusiasm was 77%, what does that spell for 2010 if the starting point for enthusiasm is only 49%?


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