Politics is Politics. Election 2010 Outlook.

by Bill Golden

Politics is politics.

It is what it is. Always has been.

If we always expect good, or that a politician won’t make a deal because they belong to some philosophy, then we will always be disappointed.

I prefer politicians that are at ease discussing their general political philosophy and acknowledging that you have got to give to get.

‘Giving to get’ does not mean abandoning your principles. It means that the art of the deal requires actually making a deal. If the deal is transparent then I have no problem — I may not like it but I have the ballot box to display my displeasure.

The crux of the GOP’s problems, and the Tea Party challenge, is that November may be a zero sum gain except in the selling of anti-acids.

The GOP cannot mathematically easily take control of Congress. It can and probably will take the House by 40-60 seats if the Democrats stay home (likely as of now) or by only 1-3 seats if the Democrats show up in equal ratio to GOP voters. Republicans need to win 39 seats to take control of the House.

The Senate will become more balanced but probably remain Democratic. However, some Republicans believe that they can possibly win 11 senate seats and take the senate too.

So the probable results of the 2010 election will be Obama as president, Boehner as House Speaker, and Reid leading the Senate. Blue Dogs will be fewer and pro-Tea Partyers will have representation.

The Tea Partyers will increase their numbers ONLY at the loss of seats by Republicans and some Blue Dogs. Status quo will be virtually unchanged … except that the Republicans and the Tea Partyers will be locked in a life and death struggle to capture the leadership of the Republican Party.

A bit of advice for Democrats: If you panic you are DOOMED. Democrats do not have the inherent sense of unity that Republicans do. Conservatives typically see each other as family, whether they like each other or not. You can’t go your own way and survive. Get a grip. Get some hand sanitizer and learn to hold hands.

Voters, and people in general, hate the smell of fear. The Republicans will campaign hard and ask for America’s vote to overturn any number of Obama administration and 111th Congress votes, such as health care and financial reform. Even if they took both houses of Congress they can’t do it. Should a victorious GOP try to overturn these and other recent changes then President Obama only need to use his veto pen to stop this in its tracks. To override a presidential veto requires a supermajority: 67 votes in the senate and 290 in the house. So this is mission impossible for the GOP … at least until maybe 2012 unless both Obama and the Democrats get their relationship with America back in order.

For the record, am not crazy about the health care reform, but am cheered about the financial reforms.

Let us also not forget the social conservatives. They sometimes talk like Tea Partyers but are ultimately statists and love big government too. The Tea Partyers are much too libertarian and anarchic for the social conservatives. 24 hours after the November election it will be all about 2012. Regardless of who eventually runs, 2012 on the right will be Palin social conservatives vs Paul’s libertarians. Look for total fun between 2010-2012.

Bill Golden, aka Bill4DogCatcher.com and JeffersonConservative.com, is an independent political observer whose views meet at the nexus of being conservative, libertarian and centrist.

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