Ezra Klein of The Washington Post has put out his 21 reasons Newt Gingrich won’t be the Republican nominee for president.
Klein is a good level-headed thinker. Gingrich is a trainwreck waiting to happen. When it happens will be very important. Timing matters. If early in the process then the GOP can pick up the fumble and keep moving. If later then it may be the equivalent of scuttling the GOP’s entire candidate fleet.
A Summary of GOP Reality per Klein: Romney’s Gingrich dirt file is likely a long, long file.
In the 8 weeks between New Hampshire and Super Tuesday Gingrich might win a few primaries, but can’t survive as frontrunner. He will and should take lots of hits from fellow GOPers.
Furthermore, if the Tea Party is serious about anything it has ever said it will join the anti-Gingrich fight.
If the Tea Party does not join the anti-Gingrich fight, or remains silent, it will be the equivalent of admitting that it is now nothing more than an quarrelsome GOP faction, but a GOP support group nonetheless … not that anyone really doesn’t already believe that.
As to the Tea Party’s independence, Tea Partyers have indeed bucked the GOP establishment to some degree. Yet there is not certainty that the Tea Party will take a stand on Gingrich. Maybe. Probably not. Almost every Tea Partyer elected in 2010 in also in danger at the polls and they must either coalesce into the party mainstream or splinter the party further. That reelection thing affects even Tea Partyers and they need every Republican win that they can muster if they want a chance at changing things to their liking.
For the GOP: Will Gingrich damage Romney badly enough that the GOP needs to find a new candidate to serve as their nominee? And would that candidate want to represent a party that is schizo.
We also should not forget how the Democrats plan to portray Gingrich.
He is his own caricature. Gingrich has a lot of explaining to do.