Bill4DogCatcher’s prediction for 2012 Election results


Making predictions about elections as volatile as 2012 is a sure way to end up embarrassed when it is all over.

There is plenty of time yet for stupid shenanigans and for events to change the playing field.

As I see it now, this will be the 2012 election results on election day: Democrats keep the Senate and pick up 1-2 seats; Democrats take back the House with a slim majority of some 15-25 seats; and President Obama gets reelected with a 5-8% margin and 340-350 electoral college votes.

Third party candidates will draw off no more than 3% of the popular vote.

Since ‘conservatives’ greatly outnumber ‘liberals’ in the USA (40%-21%) then I believe some soul-searching is in order to bring conservatism back as a viable political philosophy … one that even conservatives are willing to vote for, as well as a few moderates.

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1 Comment

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One response to “Bill4DogCatcher’s prediction for 2012 Election results

  1. George S. Harris

    While I am not good at prognostication, I do like your numbers but would like to see a wider margin in the House and a filibuster proof Senate. However, I suspect that is asking way too much. If Obama wins by the margin you suggest, that may well be the “Come to Jesus moment” you mentioned in an earlier post.

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