Tag Archives: 2010 Election

Gov. Christie To GOP: “It’s Put Up Or Shut Up Time” — RealClearPolitics

Do the Republicans really get it?

New Jersey’s Republican Governor Christie has some strong, possibly skeptical words for his fellows fresh from election victory:

“You know, I think what it says is what I was saying all over the country, that’s it’s put up or shut up time for our party. You know, we lost our way last decade, David, we did, and people expect us to do better. And if the Republican Party wants to come back, they’re going to have to do what they said they were going to do. I mean, because if they don’t, we’re going to be sent to the wilderness for a long time, and we’re going to deserve it,” Gov. Christie (R-NJ) said on NBC and as quoted on RealClearPolitics.

View Gov. Christie’s interview: RealClearPolitics – Video – Gov. Christie To GOP: “It’s Put Up Or Shut Up Time”.


Bill Golden is Bill4DogCatcher.com, a conservative observer of American economics, politics, business and trends. Have news items, info or thoughts that you would like to share? Send to Bill@Bill4DogCatcher.com

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Politics is Politics. Election 2010 Outlook.

by Bill Golden
Bill@Bill4DogCatcher.com

Politics is politics.

It is what it is. Always has been.

If we always expect good, or that a politician won’t make a deal because they belong to some philosophy, then we will always be disappointed.

I prefer politicians that are at ease discussing their general political philosophy and acknowledging that you have got to give to get.

‘Giving to get’ does not mean abandoning your principles. It means that the art of the deal requires actually making a deal. If the deal is transparent then I have no problem — I may not like it but I have the ballot box to display my displeasure.

The crux of the GOP’s problems, and the Tea Party challenge, is that November may be a zero sum gain except in the selling of anti-acids.

The GOP cannot mathematically easily take control of Congress. It can and probably will take the House by 40-60 seats if the Democrats stay home (likely as of now) or by only 1-3 seats if the Democrats show up in equal ratio to GOP voters. Republicans need to win 39 seats to take control of the House.

The Senate will become more balanced but probably remain Democratic. However, some Republicans believe that they can possibly win 11 senate seats and take the senate too.

So the probable results of the 2010 election will be Obama as president, Boehner as House Speaker, and Reid leading the Senate. Blue Dogs will be fewer and pro-Tea Partyers will have representation.

The Tea Partyers will increase their numbers ONLY at the loss of seats by Republicans and some Blue Dogs. Status quo will be virtually unchanged … except that the Republicans and the Tea Partyers will be locked in a life and death struggle to capture the leadership of the Republican Party.

A bit of advice for Democrats: If you panic you are DOOMED. Democrats do not have the inherent sense of unity that Republicans do. Conservatives typically see each other as family, whether they like each other or not. You can’t go your own way and survive. Get a grip. Get some hand sanitizer and learn to hold hands.

Voters, and people in general, hate the smell of fear. The Republicans will campaign hard and ask for America’s vote to overturn any number of Obama administration and 111th Congress votes, such as health care and financial reform. Even if they took both houses of Congress they can’t do it. Should a victorious GOP try to overturn these and other recent changes then President Obama only need to use his veto pen to stop this in its tracks. To override a presidential veto requires a supermajority: 67 votes in the senate and 290 in the house. So this is mission impossible for the GOP … at least until maybe 2012 unless both Obama and the Democrats get their relationship with America back in order.

For the record, am not crazy about the health care reform, but am cheered about the financial reforms.

Let us also not forget the social conservatives. They sometimes talk like Tea Partyers but are ultimately statists and love big government too. The Tea Partyers are much too libertarian and anarchic for the social conservatives. 24 hours after the November election it will be all about 2012. Regardless of who eventually runs, 2012 on the right will be Palin social conservatives vs Paul’s libertarians. Look for total fun between 2010-2012.


Bill Golden, aka Bill4DogCatcher.com and JeffersonConservative.com, is an independent political observer whose views meet at the nexus of being conservative, libertarian and centrist.

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Independents Gaining Momentum As More Americans Reject Party Politics

By Bill Golden
Bill4DogCatcher.com and JeffersonConservative.com

My prediction is that there will be 5-6 independent senators in the U.S. Congress by 2014, many or most will be former Republicans.

These are the Republicans that are generally conservative in nature but centrist in their ability to work with others on that great playground that we call American politics — where rules are usually for the other guy.

Independents will have major impact in 2012 based on their ability to provide critical votes; there should be at least 3 if not 4 independent senators within Congress.

Those parties that do not move to the middle will find their efforts defeated within these critical few votes.

Outside of the senate, independents are picking up some momentum across the country. Recent successful ballot initiatives like California’s no political party primary referendum will help speed up the success of independents and independent-minded members of political parties as voters will no longer have to pick the lesser of two evils (on most days).

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From this morning’s USAToday:

“Independents gain favor in governors’ races”
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/2010-07-05-independents_N.htm

Excerpted:

There are more signs of centrists stirring as national politics remain sharply polarized, a factor some candidates cite for leaving or being pushed from their old allegiances. Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, who became an independent candidate for the Senate when the GOP seemed certain to nominate Tea Party favorite Marco Rubio, now leads the three-way field. In California last month, voters approved a constitutional amendment to make primaries open and non-partisan, a measure intended to boost moderate contenders.

“One of the things we’re seeing this year is a voter revolt against the extremes in both parties and a desire to find candidates who can be elected from the middle and who can govern from the middle,” says Eliot Cutler, a former Carter administration official who is running as an independent for governor of Maine.

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Election 2010 – Follow the Money. Find the Influence.

The Center for Responsive Politics is celebrating its 27th anniversary as the nation’s premier research group tracking money in U.S. politics and its effect on elections and public policy. Nonpartisan, independent and nonprofit, the organization aims to create a more educated voter, an involved citizenry and a more transparent and responsive government.

The Center for Responsive Politics (CRP) mission is to:

  • Inform citizens about how money in politics affects their lives
  • Empower voters and activists by providing unbiased information
  • Advocate for a transparent and responsive government

The CRP pursues its mission largely through OpenSecrets.org, a comprehensive resource for federal campaign contributions, lobbying data and analysis.

CRP relies on financial support from a combination of foundation grants, individual contributions and income earned from custom research and licensing data for commercial use. The Center accepts no contributions from businesses, labor unions or trade associations. You can support the work of the Center directly by contributing through OpenSecrets.org.

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A Republican Waterloo – Losing The Health Care Reform Vote May Hurt Republicans More Than Democrats

by Dennis Sanders, RepublicansUnited.us
Commentary by Bill Golden, Bill4DogCatcher.com


David J. Frum is a Canadian American conservative journalist active in both USA and Canadian politics, a former economics speechwriter for President George W. Bush, and founder of FrumForum.com (formerly NewMajority.com), a political group blog.


David Frum lets conservatives and Republicans have it for their intransigence during the health care debate:

At the beginning of this process we made a strategic decision: unlike, say, Democrats in 2001 when President Bush proposed his first tax cut, we would make no deal with the administration. No negotiations, no compromise, nothing. We were going for all the marbles. This would be Obama’s Waterloo – just as healthcare was Clinton’s in 1994.

Only, the hardliners overlooked a few key facts: Obama was elected with 53% of the vote, not Clinton’s 42%. The liberal block within the Democratic congressional caucus is bigger and stronger than it was in 1993-94. And of course the Democrats also remember their history, and also remember the consequences of their 1994 failure.

This time, when we went for all the marbles, we ended with none.

Could a deal have been reached? Who knows? But we do know that the gap between this plan and traditional Republican ideas is not very big. The Obama plan has a broad family resemblance to Mitt Romney’s Massachusetts plan. It builds on ideas developed at the Heritage Foundation in the early 1990s that formed the basis for Republican counter-proposals to Clintoncare in 1993-1994.

Barack Obama badly wanted Republican votes for his plan. Could we have leveraged his desire to align the plan more closely with conservative views? To finance it without redistributive taxes on productive enterprise – without weighing so heavily on small business – without expanding Medicaid? Too late now. They are all the law.

No illusions please: This bill will not be repealed. Even if Republicans scored a 1994 style landslide in November, how many votes could we muster to re-open the “doughnut hole” and charge seniors more for prescription drugs? How many votes to re-allow insurers to rescind policies when they discover a pre-existing condition? How many votes to banish 25 year olds from their parents’ insurance coverage? And even if the votes were there – would President Obama sign such a repeal?

by Dennis Sanders, RepublicansUnited.us

I totally agree. GOP leadership can huff and puff all they like, but they aren’t going muster any votes to take away something that has been given to them. It’s a nice issue to stir up the passions of the base for the next few years, but let’s face it: this legislation is here to stay.

Sure, conservatives and Republicans might have their revenge in November and pick up a few seats-something that will make the hardliners feel good- but in the end, this is victory for the Democrats. We will end up with a bill that will be in effect long after the leading GOP leaders have left Washington.

Ross Douthat has made fun of moderate Republicans in the past for basically becoming the accountants of the welfare state- allowing Democrats to have their big government programs, but making sure these plans were fiscally sound. What would have happened had the party allowed Olympia Snowe to help work out a deal that would have made health care reform more fiscally sustainable? What if an Orrin Hatch (who is not a moderate) or Bob Bennett had been able to force a tax on so-called “Cadillac Plans” that would help fund the deal and also lead to some meaningful reform on costs?

We will never know because the leadership made damn sure no Republican cooperated. I think in the long run, this will be the GOP’s Waterloo, a big spectacular loss. We can’t see it now, but give it five or ten years.

We lost this one, big time.

Bill4DogCatcher.com sez: Tactics may win battles but poor strategy loses or wins wars. The Republican strategy had no tactics except delay and obstruction, and their strategy was to hope that the TEA Party rallied enough support to scare the bejesus out of lawmakers. A war lost due to squandered opportunities to capture the conversation and to work for the American people.

Here is the Election 2010 scenario as I see it: there will be a constitutional challenge to the passage of the Health Care Reform. However, there is a degree to which that really doesn’t matter. Timing will reward the Democrats.

The Supreme Court will not hurriedly accept appeals to overturn the new Health Care Reform Act. Sometime in 2011 may be the earliest that they accept a challenge, late 2010 at the earliest. This is bad news for Republicans.

Between now and late spring 2010 there are no major political issues for Republicans to champion. They have put all of their hopes into a single issue and failed miserably. Their closest allies, the TEA Party in particular, already consider the GOP largely impotent and this just proves it. Republicans can expect to face challenges across the nation in their primaries and in the general election from third party and independent conservatives.

Between now and late summer 2010 the economy will make improvements. These improvements will be sufficient enough to make President Obama and the Democrats look like they are doing good things — although I do predict an economic downturn in late 2010: see 2010 Dog Catcher Predictions – Economics, from January 3, 2010.

The Democrats, despite their historic ability to grab defeat from the jaws of victory, will do well enough in November 2010 to maintain control of one or both houses of Congress. The Republicans — between now and November 2010 — will descend into self-pity, playing pin the tail on the donkey, anger and will remain without a strategy.

There are issues that Republicans can win on in November but they will need to listen to cooler heads — and I think that there are some smart folks in the TEA party that actually have the basis for a winning plan, although TEA must work to overcome their negative imagery: one part deserved and one part the natural way politics works when there is strong disagreement and your opponent wants to paint you as being on the edge … about to fall off.

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2010 Dog Catcher Predictions – Politics and Election 2010

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Politics – Democrats
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Democrats will miraculously survive the elections of 2010. But there will be significant turnover and new faces within the party after the elections.

The Democrats will get both sober and somber about presenting a unified front just after the beginning of 2010.

The Dems will do their best to finalize their health care bill passage. Both the House and the Senate will make compromises to pass it, realizing that if it doesn’t happen then it won’t happen for decades to come.

Democrats realize that they have squandered numerous major opportunities through 2009 and since the 2008 elections. They know that they will be facing 2010 voters comprised of a significantly hostile portion of the population, even within their own party.

They know that late 2010 promises to be ugly economically and that only a big fat liar would even suggest that they have a solution. So the Democrats will spend more time talking and seeking to coalesce around potential solutions. This is how they will want to be seen by the American voter in the 2010 elections. Their strategy will be to do as little as possible to create issues, and to let Republicans be Republicans — the Party of Anger and no new ideas.

!! Politics are so fluid that I will update my predictions in mid-July 2010.

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TEA Partyers
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The TEA Party machine will actively run candidates under its banner in 12-15 states. These will all be states with heavy concentrations of Republicans.

TEA Party candidates will also run under other banners, such as “Conservative Party” (Virginia) or as independents.

Whereever TEA Party candidates run it will undermine Republican candidates. I believe that TEA Partyers will actively seek to target Republican candidates as their #1 opponent, since registered Republican voters represent the greatest source of votes for each.

Any seats lost in Congress will go to either the Democrats or to the TEA Partyers.

!! Politics are so fluid that I will update my predictions in mid-July 2010.

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Republicans
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Republicans generally will be glad that 2010 is over.

Huge divisions will emerge in California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, and Texas.

Republicans will become more conservative and more harsh in their rhetoric. Their #1 and #2 issues will be tax cuts to boost the economy, and their promise to repeal any health care act signed by Obama. That’s it. No other national message will emerge from the Republicans in 2010.

Republican rhetoric will only fuel growth of independents and TEA Partyers. Both will be self-inflicted torpedoes in the sides of the Republican warship.

Republicans remain in deep, deep denial about how they got to where they are. Wall Street Journal polling of late December 2009 paints two pictures of the Republican party. Voter trends favor generic Republican positions on issues over the Democratic position. However, when asked to give an approval rating of the performance of the president, the Democratic Congress, specific political leadership positions, etc., etc., the Republicans finished the year with the lowest approval rating of any of these, a whopping 5% approval rating … lower than even Nancy Pelosi personal rating.

!! Politics are so fluid that I will update my predictions in mid-July 2010.

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2010 Elections
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Democrats will lose 16-20 seats in the House and 1-2 in the Senate.

Republicans may pick up seats lost by the Democrats, or not. Seats lost by the Democrats are more likely to be won by TEA Partyers and self-described independents.

The Democrats will survive the elections of 2010 with control over both houses of Congress.

!! Politics are so fluid that I will update my predictions in mid-July 2010.

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Purity test reignites tensions in Republican National Committee – Andy Barr – POLITICO.com

From Politico:

“An internal discussion over whether the Republican National Committee should cease funding candidates who do not support core party principles has gone public, frustrating RNC members and reopening old wounds within a party still recuperating from a bitterly divisive recent special election.”

“The resolution, sponsored by Indiana national committeeman Jim Bopp, outlines 10 “key public policy positions for the 2010 election cycle” that he and some of the more orthodox conservative members of the committee believe candidates should adhere to in order to receive the RNC’s support.”

“Among the positions: support for gun rights, support for the Defense of Marriage Act and opposition to President Barack Obama’s $787 billion stimulus package. Other key issues include support for smaller deficits and market-based solutions to health care and energy.”

View Full Story: Purity test reignites tensions in Republican National Committee – Andy Barr – POLITICO.com.

Dog Catcher’s thoughts: The 10 proposed litmus tests are a mixed bag sure to please absolutely no one. For libertarians and states rights conservatives, a number of items are statist and end up transferring power to the federal government rather than minimizing government involvement in our lives. The message for liberals and moderates is to just go away … go away please! You are not wanted. That is a the wrong message for the GOP to be sending. When even conservatives will feud among themselves over this then the GOP should proceed with CAUTION!

For my specific take on the 10 individual litmus tests see https://bill4dogcatcher.wordpress.com/2009/11/25/republicana-maybe-a-2010-litmus-test-is-the-right-idea/

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