Tag Archives: future

Future Military Technology – What does it means for jobs? Will you have the right skills?

Got a resume? Send it to us.

Technology and what the future looks like if current prototype technology becomes operational.

Of particular focus: cybersecurity and the ability to wage war or to defend against cyberthreats.

 

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Filed under International, US of America

Chincoteague, Virginia sinking or the waters rising?

Chincoteague, Virginia (Reuters / read more)

The people of Chincoteague are engaged in a battle at the water’s edge against rising seas. All along U.S. shores, people, businesses and governments are confronting rising seas not as a future possibility. For them, the ocean’s rise is a troubling everyday reality. Reuters gathered more than 25 million hourly readings from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tide gauges at nearly 70 sites on the U.S. coast and compared them to flood thresholds documented by the National Weather Service. The analysis was then narrowed to include only the 25 gauges with data spanning at least five decades. During that period, the average number of days a year that tidal waters reached or exceeded NOAA flood thresholds increased at all but two sites and tripled at more than half of the locations.

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Filed under US of America, Virginia / Region

JOBS / Life / Career Changes / Income Expectations / TeleEverything / Retirement … and about those damned robots

JOBS / Life / Career Changes / Income Expectations / TeleEverything / Retirement … and about those damned robots

by Bill Golden
CEO, USAJobZoo.com
aka IntelligenceCareers.com

Think different. Start yesterday. That is when the future arrived.

What made for success in the past is not a guarantee for the future … your market value no longer ‘always increases’ … expect some skills to remain popular but value to drop … some to increase … expect flat salaries over the next decade … wherever you go there you are: always have a Plan B as you will probably change your core ‘what I do for a living’ at least 5-8 times before you finally collect a retirement check … from your 401K or IRA which you funded throughout your life … right?

How often will you change jobs in life? Survey sez …

A Department of Labor report from summer of 2012 found that the average American age 18-46 would change employers an average of 11.3 times … half of those changes would be between the ages 18-24.

++++ This information is not based on our current generation but on the experiences of Boomers born between 1957-1964.

++++ I realize that the numbers are probably quite different for today’s age group of 18-24 … many of whom are still trying to find that first job.

For those ages 24 and under: employment in your age group has always been challenging. In the old days (like 20 years ago) we still had a lot of manual-based labor jobs that you could always slide into while figuring out what life meant and where it was taking you. Those same opportunities are far fewer today … but so is the requirement for education. Survey says that for those currently under the age of 30: college degrees matter, even when applying for jobs that do not pay well.

As for salary and income expectation, things have changed immensely since even the mid-2000s. For experienced professionals it was not uncommon for an employer to ask you for a salary history for either your last 2-3 jobs or for the last 10 years. The idea behind was that real talent is always growing in compensation — resumes can say anything but the proof is in the money that you get as to how good you are.

In a recent Atlantic Magazine article entitled Robots Won’t Steal Your Job Next Decade (They’ll Just Steal Your Raise), the magazine talks about income remaining flat through about 2017 and then a miracle happens where income just takes off … recovering to 2005 levels by 2020 … or almost recovering to 2005 levels … if the miracle happens — which Atlantic calls the Little Orphan Annie theory of recoveries — catchup growth is always just a year away, until it’s another year away.

Future Outlook

We do more with less. MUCH LESS … or perhaps more grammatically correct: many fewer … people … we can do more with many fewer people … and at higher profit margins, too.

The headline of the Atlantic Magazine article mentions ‘Robots’ but what we are really talking about is the ability of information technologies when combined with physical and organizational processes.

Automation of processes, collaboration, logistics integration and manufacturing are the challenges that our workforce faces today and in the immediate future; these are the folks whose primary role in our economic society is to trade services for a paycheck … and since they no longer live on a farm then they need that paycheck to buy food and they need that paycheck to do all the things which they can no longer do as when our culture was primary rural and small town … as it was just a generation or so ago.

We need a bigger conversation about JOBS JOBS JOBS … because the future has arrived.

Think different. Start yesterday. That is when the future arrived.

Best regards,

Bill Golden
WGolden@USAJobZoo.com

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Jobs Report December 2012 – The BIG Picture as to where jobs numbers are going

Below are December 2012 jobs numbers and where they fit in the big picture.

2012 Jobs Recovery Chart as of Dec 2012

Get updates online at CRGraphs.com

The big picture has been that the jobs recovery period has been taking longer and longer and looooooooonger for jobs to return to their high point.

Back in 2009 a number of economic models were published that pointed to 2017 as the probable year when jobs finally recover to 2007 levels.

There are also some dark sides to the models that say full recovery will not be until 2022-24.

There are many different reasons as to why it is taking longer and longer for jobs to recover — and they never did recover to their high point from the 2001 Recession; the percentage of employed Americans has continually dropped since 2001 … with today being 2012 and that trend continuing.

You can blame left policies. You can blame right policies. But mostly we are doing two things which almost guarantee fewer jobs.

#1 is that we are enjoying the benefits of an information society tied to both industry and to productivity. The productivity rate of Americans is almost double that of population growth. Bottomline: we can do more with less, and when times get difficult we really can do much more with less … and once we do then there is no going back.

#2 is that our economy is so integrated with the world economy that we no longer feel bad selling our fellow citizens down the river if we can get a better price on a product produced anywhere else in the world. That may sound cynical but it is reality. There may be American flags flying at our shopping malls and in front of mega-stores but concepts like ‘borders’ and having an ‘integral economy’ really do not matter in our modern world — the only thing that matters is our own job which will enable us to keep buying whatever from wherever whenever we want.

Thoughts and ideas?

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Jobs – Jobs – Jobs! … or is it really just Talking Point Agendas that gets presidents elected/reelected?

Do we really know or care how economics work in our daily lives?

Or do we just want magic to happen and to not be bothered by the thought of it all?!

Please, just sell us some good talking points. Give us some more happy talk. Give us some more trash talk that we can believe in!

President Obama is taking repeated butt kicks over his seeming inability to jumpstart the jobs market. Yet even with having to deal with the Great Recession’s fallout, President Obama statistically has a better track record in the jobs department than does his predecessor, President Bush.

—–>> Reality is that both presidents Bush and Obama have experienced the same phenomena when it comes to jobs creation. Jobs creation has been sluggish since 2001 and there seems to be few ideas for jumpstarting jobs growth that actually yields more than momentary results — and generally unimpressive results. We can do more with less and we are. Welcome to the future.

Erstwhile conservative commentator and former GOP Congressman Joe Scarborough posted the jobs-created-by-president chart below on his Facebook page, along with the comments that follow the chart.

Jobs by president 1960-2012 - Joe Scarborough

“Job growth is obviously what everybody talks about as a major factor in these elections…[Bill] Clinton is sort of the gold standard with 9.9% job growth. And then you see both Obama and Bush 43 essentially with no job growth…You see a mixed picture of presidents who got re-elected and how the job growth corresponds. What’s not on here is Jimmy Carter, who actually had the best job growth of all of them. He had 12% job growth during his first four years and still didn’t get re-elected.”
Joe Scarborough, Oct 18, 2012

If a president deserves credit for jobs creation, do they deserve that credit because of their policies? … or do they deserve it because of their use of the bully pulpit to push change in a given direction? … or do they deserve credit only if we like their partisan left-or-right highest ranking most popular talking points?

Jimmy Carter is considered a weak president and yet Carter is the platinum standard by which jobs growth could or perhaps should be judged.

Bill Clinton is universally the recipient of good will for strong jobs creation during his tenure, and President Reagan is held in the highest esteem by the Center-Right even though Reagan only comes in third place for jobs creation during his time in office.

Let’s consider policy. Policy is why we say that we elect presidents. We know President Obama’s record: weak jobs growth but there is now stability. So is the New Romney better equipped than the Old Romney? When Romney took office as governor of Massachusetts his state ranked #37 in jobs growth and by the end of his term Massachusetts was #47. Yet we hear constantly that Romney has the experience and the business background to grow jobs. He is a businessman, a CEO. So what happened in Massachusetts? Do policies actually matter?

The impact of policy adjusts itself over time. What works during one time period may completely flop the next.

As well, the productiveness of a policy even during the same presidency may only have a very short impact, positive or negative. When Bush jumpstarted the economy in late 2006 his tax policies policies produced only two quarters of above average jobs growth and then jobs growth returned to its downward path — even though the amount of money coming into and flowing into the economy continued to grow.

One of the reasons that jobs growth under Bush 43 was so poor (essentially the same as under Obama) was that our economy had adjusted itself to take advantage of technologic efficiencies while also getting rid of a large portion of manual labor (shifting those jobs overseas).

The math that bit Bush and Obama will also bite whomever is president during the next four years. We have embraced a policy path that puts profits before people. That may be good for folks at the Walmart, K-mart and Target checkout counters but it is not producing jobs.

If it is all about Jobs Jobs Jobs! then maybe we need to acknowledge that perhaps we have broken the system and need to reconsider the entire concept of work, compensation and jobs growth.

 

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When is a cloud just a dream — rather than a savory Apple pie?

by Bill Golden
CEO, USAJobZoo.com
and IntelligenceCareers.com

When is a cloud just a dream — rather than a savory Apple pie?

Apple invested $300 million to build a cloud center at an internet and highway crossroads in North Carolina. The dream was that the cloud would bring jobs and growth to a community hard hit by foreign competition.

Certainly the cloud makes for a good enabler of telework and can help lower costs for businesses that are information-intensive.

There are costs, however. Local investments in such technology does not mean that there will be local jobs.

Apple got a $46 million state tax break in North Carolina to build one of its new cloud centers. The promise was that at least 250 jobs would be created.

So far the actual job count is perhaps 50 employed, or $920,000 in tax breaks per job. Combine state tax breaks with a local 50% reduction in Apple’s property taxes and it soon seems that Carolinians are paying their own wages via statewide taxes to work at the Apple cloud facility.

The future of jobs as one industry analyst frames such investments: “… in the newer digital economy, capital investments that a generation ago would have created thousands of new positions often equal only a handful today, with computers and software processing the heavy lifting while the key programming is often done by engineers back in Silicon Valley.”

The cloud also is a two-edged sword. So while the cloud enables telework and can help lower costs for businesses that are information-intensive, it can also be the vehicle for transferring work to whereever the work can be done at a lesser cost.

For communities such as the one in North Carolina that hosts the Apple cloud facility, the cloud may well cost them more jobs than it will create unless they find a way to harness the power of the cloud rather than just have it live in their backyard while paying for its existence through tax credits and lost state tax revenue which they will pay through other forms of taxation.

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American Classic 2012 – Zen is what you make it.

My advice: Stop spending. Start saving. Expect worse. Work for the best.

Help is not on the way from either Left or Right. You must create your own job. The time is yesterday to evaluate your skillset.

Bill4DogCatcher.com’s outlook is that 2012 will be 2011, only worse.

Everyone wants everyone else to pay for what they themselves do not want to pay for. Yet so much is owed that it just about doesn’t matter if you or I both pay more, unless quite a bit more // the flip side is that we are mostly in this pickle because we went along with tax cuts, cheap Chinese products and all of those added benefits without a second thought — back when we had the luxury of having a second thought.

2010: 2.9 million home foreclosures. Approximately 12,000,000 changed their way of life.

2011: On par with 2010 but foreclosures are up about 30% since August 2011.

2012: 2011 continued + federal meltdown. All are to blame and it will take sacrifice by all to fix it. If you want it then it needs to be paid for.

American Classic 2012

American Reality 2012

JOBS, JOBS, JOBS

Don’t look for more in 2012. Or not enough to break through our population growth level.

The jobless numbers may get better as a percentage but that is because we are no longer counting the majority of the newly jobless from 2008-2010.

Look for the raw number of Americans employed to hover around 134,000,000 on a good day for the next few years. In 2000 we had 132 million employed and by 2010 that raw number had dropped to 130 million despite 30 million new souls added among us.

2010: 75% of those jobless got some form of unemployment assistance.

2011: 48% get some form of unemployment aid; you have a lifetime limit of 99 weeks.

2012: The raw number of those employed seems to have plateaued. We are not losing jobs but neither are we gaining jobs. Population growth requires that at least 125-150,000 jobs be created monthly. Ain’t happening. WON’T HAPPEN. Technologic advances are not slowing and the truth is that much of what is still done by people with jobs now could be further automated and refined (i.e. humans no longer needed). It will be too.

So what to do? It will take a lot more thinking than just taxing the rich or telling the screwed: eat cake.

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