Tag Archives: Mitt Romney

Election 2012 – The GOP got Obama elected … again

I’m a conservative libertarian defector from the GOP. Since the majority of Americans identify with the ‘conservative’ brand then I must not be alone.

The GOP elected Obama president in 2008 and did it again in 2012.

If the GOP were really the party of business then it should understand that winning over your competitors is often based on winning by margin. You have got to convince non-users of your product that you are the right choice.

Things for the GOP to think about:

Social issues must become personal choices, not political mandates. Walk away from running people’s individual lives. Stop talking about ‘freedom’ and then embracing every aspect of national spying on people, groups and individuals possible and justifying it in the name of Homeland Security. Start talking about ‘small business’ as if you are saying something rather than creating deductions, tax breaks, and import/export deals that only large business can take advantage of.

And stop with the name calling. Obama may be, and is, a liberal but he is not a socialist. He is not a proto-communist. He is not someone that tripled our national debt. Get real.

Take a good long look at your family photo: full of white and aging white. It is not that people of color, almost every color, don’t like the GOP. The GOP doesn’t seem to like them. I know that this is not apparent to most GOP members because we all know a Black/Asian/Latino/Indian/Gay person that votes GOP. Yes those people exist. Several do. The GOP needs to show that it understands the problems and the challenges within the lives of the majority of these groups rather than writing them off. And keep in mind that the race card plays both ways — if you want to talk about white then realize that a whole lot of white voted for Obama.

2012 made it tough for libertarian conservatives to embrace what should have been the core GOP message: ‘Fiscal responsibility. Strong defense. Government out of our lives.’

The GOP message did not embrace these core conservative beliefs in a believable way.

Am not crazy about Obama. Did not contribute a penny to his campaign. But I did vote for him. And compared to the alternative offered: No, I do not regret my vote at all.

Dear GOP: get your act together and I’ll be back: ‘Fiscal responsibility. Strong defense. Government out of our lives.’ Skip the social issues!

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Jobs – Jobs – Jobs! … or is it really just Talking Point Agendas that gets presidents elected/reelected?

Do we really know or care how economics work in our daily lives?

Or do we just want magic to happen and to not be bothered by the thought of it all?!

Please, just sell us some good talking points. Give us some more happy talk. Give us some more trash talk that we can believe in!

President Obama is taking repeated butt kicks over his seeming inability to jumpstart the jobs market. Yet even with having to deal with the Great Recession’s fallout, President Obama statistically has a better track record in the jobs department than does his predecessor, President Bush.

—–>> Reality is that both presidents Bush and Obama have experienced the same phenomena when it comes to jobs creation. Jobs creation has been sluggish since 2001 and there seems to be few ideas for jumpstarting jobs growth that actually yields more than momentary results — and generally unimpressive results. We can do more with less and we are. Welcome to the future.

Erstwhile conservative commentator and former GOP Congressman Joe Scarborough posted the jobs-created-by-president chart below on his Facebook page, along with the comments that follow the chart.

Jobs by president 1960-2012 - Joe Scarborough

“Job growth is obviously what everybody talks about as a major factor in these elections…[Bill] Clinton is sort of the gold standard with 9.9% job growth. And then you see both Obama and Bush 43 essentially with no job growth…You see a mixed picture of presidents who got re-elected and how the job growth corresponds. What’s not on here is Jimmy Carter, who actually had the best job growth of all of them. He had 12% job growth during his first four years and still didn’t get re-elected.”
Joe Scarborough, Oct 18, 2012

If a president deserves credit for jobs creation, do they deserve that credit because of their policies? … or do they deserve it because of their use of the bully pulpit to push change in a given direction? … or do they deserve credit only if we like their partisan left-or-right highest ranking most popular talking points?

Jimmy Carter is considered a weak president and yet Carter is the platinum standard by which jobs growth could or perhaps should be judged.

Bill Clinton is universally the recipient of good will for strong jobs creation during his tenure, and President Reagan is held in the highest esteem by the Center-Right even though Reagan only comes in third place for jobs creation during his time in office.

Let’s consider policy. Policy is why we say that we elect presidents. We know President Obama’s record: weak jobs growth but there is now stability. So is the New Romney better equipped than the Old Romney? When Romney took office as governor of Massachusetts his state ranked #37 in jobs growth and by the end of his term Massachusetts was #47. Yet we hear constantly that Romney has the experience and the business background to grow jobs. He is a businessman, a CEO. So what happened in Massachusetts? Do policies actually matter?

The impact of policy adjusts itself over time. What works during one time period may completely flop the next.

As well, the productiveness of a policy even during the same presidency may only have a very short impact, positive or negative. When Bush jumpstarted the economy in late 2006 his tax policies policies produced only two quarters of above average jobs growth and then jobs growth returned to its downward path — even though the amount of money coming into and flowing into the economy continued to grow.

One of the reasons that jobs growth under Bush 43 was so poor (essentially the same as under Obama) was that our economy had adjusted itself to take advantage of technologic efficiencies while also getting rid of a large portion of manual labor (shifting those jobs overseas).

The math that bit Bush and Obama will also bite whomever is president during the next four years. We have embraced a policy path that puts profits before people. That may be good for folks at the Walmart, K-mart and Target checkout counters but it is not producing jobs.

If it is all about Jobs Jobs Jobs! then maybe we need to acknowledge that perhaps we have broken the system and need to reconsider the entire concept of work, compensation and jobs growth.

 

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12,000,000 New Jobs from 2013-2017? Bill4DogCatcher does the math.

Governor Romney has set 12,000,000 new jobs within four years as his jobs creation goal, and is chiding President Obama for not being capable of achieving that.

Many prominent economists have predicted 12,000,000 new jobs (an increase over the number of people working today) as the expected rate for jobs growth during this period (2013-2017) under normal circumstances.

Those normal circumstances are that jobs keep up with population growth.

Here is the math:

If jobs grow in direct proportion to population growth of 1.01%/year then over four years that works out to 12,560,000 jobs created, or 3,140,000 jobs per year as an average. However those 12 million jobs still represent a ZERO SUM GAIN and does nothing to replace any of the jobs lost since 2007’s Great Recession. Those jobs only represent the needs of current population growth.

—–> The Math: U.S. population is 314M (3Q 2012) / 100 * 1.01 = 3.14M jobs/year … or 261,667 jobs per month are needed to keep up with population growth.

The challenge for whomever is the next president is that the U.S. productivity rate is currently 2.2% (2Q 2012), which is double the rate of population growth. Theoretically, with a ratio of 1.01:2.2% (population growth:productivity growth), the need for workers is decreasing at twice the rate of population growth.

—–> The Math: If productivity continues to increase at its current rate then mathematically we should expect jobs growth at only half the rate of population growth (261,667 jobs = 1.01% population growth per month). So if only half the number of jobs are needed to match the growth in productivity then that number works out to just 130,833 jobs per month as being the expected monthly average.

During 2012, the 2012 average monthly jobs growth rate has been 146,000 jobs per month as of October which is appropriate for what the math tells us should be norm. If that remains the case (productivity rate vs population growth) then what we are probably looking at as realistically being the expected number for jobs growth between 2013-2017 is just 6-7 million jobs, not 12 million or higher.

Things can change but math says that we are where we should be without some game changer. Where we are is that jobs are not growing to match population growth, not even close.

The chart below shows jobs growth since 1980 as a percentage of Americans having a job. Since 2001, the percentage of Americans with jobs has dropped almost every year and incrementally almost every month since 2001. The exception was a strong but short-lived growth in jobs in late 2006 and early 2007.

BLS 1980-2012 Labor Participation Rate

BLS 1980-2012 Labor Participation Rate

Here is what the chart looks like on a monthly basis since 1980:

BLS 1980-2012 Labor Participation Rate by Year and Month

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Those tax-dodging 47% despised by the GOP are … are mostly GOP Voters. Go figure.

Atlantic Magazine and The Tax Foundation look at who the 47% are, how they vote and … holy cow! This can’t be … must be a statistical mistake … The 47% seem to live in GOP states and heavily vote GOP … and triple holy, holy, holy cow: the states with the lowest membership in the 47% seem to be Democratic-dominated states. WTF?

Reality Check: The chance always exists that the majority of the members of the 47% in the GOP-dominated states are Democrats and not Republican voters — although that would mean that almost every Democrat within the GOP states belongs to the 47%, with maybe a smidgen or two of GOP voters also participating. Logic Flaw: If this logic were true — that mostly only Democrats in Republican states are the 47% — then why do Democratic-heavy states have fewer members of the 47%? The top 10 states with the lowest rates of non-income taxpaying citizens tend to be bastions of Democratic voters and actually have the highest rate of income taxpayers.
Top 10 states where non-taxpayers live

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Bill4DogCatcher endorses ___ for president in 2012.

Someone asked, and for a week now the GOP has put the question out there for you and me to think about: Are we better off than 4 years ago?

Life has been challenging. Business has been challenging — and I say that as a CEO of a small but global company.

I’ve always considered myself a conservative, a Reagan Democrat … a Blue Dog if you like that term. You can call me a RINO too — I don’t really care. I’ve become rather fond of the term RINO (Really Independent & Not Obnoxious).

Bottomline: I generally vote Republican 70-80% of the time … although my last three votes for governor and senator in Virginia have been for Democrats, but Republicans at the local level. As to that nagging question: are we better off as a nation than 4 years ago? YES, yes, yes. … We are a bit bruised, have low expectations for more than minimal jobs growth in the foreseeable future, and know that our world has fundamentally changed and it will never be 2007 again. There is nothing to take our country back to — back four years ago — that was better than today … not that I’m so crazy about today as to think life is just grand.

Better than four years ago? Yes. We are no longer hemorraging hundreds of thousands of jobs every month, month after month. We are no longer losing our savings and retirement funds to trying to save our homes and our businesses. We are not doing great, our income is a bit lower, but we are stable … and that fiscal cliff scares me. 2013 could be a real bitch of a year, and 2014 as well.

Are we better off four years later?

All recessions eventually work themselves out. But are we better off than 4 years ago? Things are fragile but stable … which beats the alternative of losing jobs every month.

As to that fiscal cliff, President Barack Obama did not bring or lead us to this point. If you want to point fingers we should all start with ourselves and the political leaders of both parties, past and present, that won’t make the hard choices and be truthful about 1+1=2 and deficits, and …

Bill4DogCatcher.com endorses ____.

I have endorsed Gary Johnson, Libertarian. I may well vote Libertarian in November. I have said I would and I am usually pretty dogged about doing what I say.

>> However, should it come to picking just between President Obama and Governor Romney then my choice would be to vote Obama.

There, I’ve said it. Hate me. Call me a RINO … I don’t really care.

I’m just going to sit here with my cup of coffee in my McCain 2008 coffee mug thinking to myself: what a bunch of nutcases the GOP has become. Call me when sanity knocks again at the door.

Best regards,
Bill G

Corporate profit growth since Great Recession

Profits have been hard to come by for small businesses, which did the great majority of hiring of workers, but the last four years have been very good for someone … just not the American workforce.

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Mitt Romney and Bogus Slogan Claims

This image has become very popular on Facebook over the Labor Day 2012 weekend.

Mitt Romney slogan - BOGUS

Problem: it is a bogus claim. It is not even a good stretch of the truth.

Mitt Romney’s slogan is “We believe in America.”

SNOPES has also posted a debunking on their website.

There are also those that say, ‘Well, maybe not his slogan but he uses the phrase in speeches.’

Those claims have been made but every instance has also been found to also be bogus.


Factcheckers of the world unite!

You can contact me at WGolden@Bill4DogCatcher.com

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Election 2012 … Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire

It is all what it is. Since 1800 we have come to routinely expect lies, deceit and heavily filtered info by candidates, their campaigns, and their supporters.

We have a choice. Some of us vote for the lesser of two evils. Some vote for the supposed philosophy espoused by a candidate in the hope that it will prevail.

Yet we all must be responsible for seeking out the facts on our own and being skeptical of everyone.

We should consider perhaps that the more the flag is waved, or our hearts are appealed to, then the higher the chance that a smokescreen is being created for something else.

ELECTION 2012

… and the WINNER is (so far):

Politifact has judged Obama public statements of fact to flunk the truthfulness test 31% of the time. Obama is also the recipient of 6 ‘Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire’ judgements … http://www.politifact.com/personalities/barack-obama/

HOWEVER, Romney WINS the untruthfulness contest easily with 43% of his statement of facts flunking the truthfulness test … Romney also beats out Obama badly in the ‘Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire’ judgements against him … http://www.politifact.com/personalities/mitt-romney/

So should we trust someone more that misleads us 31% of the time, rather than 43% of the time?

Or is it what it is and we should just vote A) the lesser of two evils, or B) vote for the philosophy, hoping it prevails, and consider lying an All-American election normality? Election 2012 is not a contest of angels.

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