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Politics – Democrats
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Democrats will miraculously survive the elections of 2010. But there will be significant turnover and new faces within the party after the elections.
The Democrats will get both sober and somber about presenting a unified front just after the beginning of 2010.
The Dems will do their best to finalize their health care bill passage. Both the House and the Senate will make compromises to pass it, realizing that if it doesn’t happen then it won’t happen for decades to come.
Democrats realize that they have squandered numerous major opportunities through 2009 and since the 2008 elections. They know that they will be facing 2010 voters comprised of a significantly hostile portion of the population, even within their own party.
They know that late 2010 promises to be ugly economically and that only a big fat liar would even suggest that they have a solution. So the Democrats will spend more time talking and seeking to coalesce around potential solutions. This is how they will want to be seen by the American voter in the 2010 elections. Their strategy will be to do as little as possible to create issues, and to let Republicans be Republicans — the Party of Anger and no new ideas.
!! Politics are so fluid that I will update my predictions in mid-July 2010.
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TEA Partyers
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The TEA Party machine will actively run candidates under its banner in 12-15 states. These will all be states with heavy concentrations of Republicans.
TEA Party candidates will also run under other banners, such as “Conservative Party” (Virginia) or as independents.
Whereever TEA Party candidates run it will undermine Republican candidates. I believe that TEA Partyers will actively seek to target Republican candidates as their #1 opponent, since registered Republican voters represent the greatest source of votes for each.
Any seats lost in Congress will go to either the Democrats or to the TEA Partyers.
!! Politics are so fluid that I will update my predictions in mid-July 2010.
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Republicans
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Republicans generally will be glad that 2010 is over.
Huge divisions will emerge in California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, and Texas.
Republicans will become more conservative and more harsh in their rhetoric. Their #1 and #2 issues will be tax cuts to boost the economy, and their promise to repeal any health care act signed by Obama. That’s it. No other national message will emerge from the Republicans in 2010.
Republican rhetoric will only fuel growth of independents and TEA Partyers. Both will be self-inflicted torpedoes in the sides of the Republican warship.
Republicans remain in deep, deep denial about how they got to where they are. Wall Street Journal polling of late December 2009 paints two pictures of the Republican party. Voter trends favor generic Republican positions on issues over the Democratic position. However, when asked to give an approval rating of the performance of the president, the Democratic Congress, specific political leadership positions, etc., etc., the Republicans finished the year with the lowest approval rating of any of these, a whopping 5% approval rating … lower than even Nancy Pelosi personal rating.
!! Politics are so fluid that I will update my predictions in mid-July 2010.
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2010 Elections
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Democrats will lose 16-20 seats in the House and 1-2 in the Senate.
Republicans may pick up seats lost by the Democrats, or not. Seats lost by the Democrats are more likely to be won by TEA Partyers and self-described independents.
The Democrats will survive the elections of 2010 with control over both houses of Congress.
!! Politics are so fluid that I will update my predictions in mid-July 2010.
Bill Golden's Bill4DogCatcher.com 